LONDON, February 2, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Thirteen US blockbusters will lose patent protection over the next two years, data from EvaluatePharma show, highlighting the challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry in the coming years. With the reporting season in full swing it is no wonder that several big pharmaceutical company chief executives have warned of tough times ahead.
- Drugs worth $15.3bn face generic competition this year
- "At risk" sales to more than double to $33.2bn by 2012, biggest
annual total on record
- $133bn of branded drugs face patent expiry in next six years in
the US alone
- Pfizer to bear brunt of patent cliff with $11bn Lipitor expiry
later this year
The sector is facing an unprecedented period of patent expiries when mega-blockbusters, including Lipitor, Plavix and Zyprexa, will all be exposed to cheap, generic drugs. While this is good news in terms of lowering healthcare bills, companies like Pfizer and Eli Lilly are facing the loss of hugely profitable franchises.
Top products going off- patent in 2011 and 2012:2011
Lipitor - Pfizer
Zyprexa - Eli Lilly
Levaquin - Johnson & Johnson
Concerta - Johnson & Johnson
Protonix - Pfizer
2012
Plavix - Bristol- Meyers, Squibb
Seroquel - AstraZeneca
Singulair - Merck & Co
Actos - Takeda
Enbrel - Amgen
Lexapro - Forest Laboratories
Diovan - Novartis
Viagra - Pfizer
Provigil - Cephalon
Geodon - Pfizer
By 2016, medicines that generate sales of $133bn for their manufacturers in the US alone will be exposed to generics. And while this year looks bad, next year is a true annus horribilis: drugs worth $33.2bn this year will lose patent protection in 2012, more than double this year's figure. Big pharma patent expiry risk over next 3 years (data based on FY 2010
estimates)
WW Patent Patent expiry %
Pharma expired within 3 portfolio
Sales sales years ($bn) at risk
in 2010 ($bn) within 3
($bn) years
Pfizer 53.6 13.8 22.7 68%
Eli Lilly 20.8 3.1 10.6 66%
Bristol-Myers
Squibb 15.6 0.9 8.2 58%
Johnson &
Johnson 24.3 6.5 6.3 52%
AstraZeneca 31.7 7.7 8.3 50%
Amgen 14.6 0.0 7.4 50%
Merck & Co 41.1 10.1 7.4 43%
Sanofi-Aventis 39.9 11.1 4.8 40%
Novartis 45.0 6.5 11.4 40%
GlaxoSmithKline 39.6 10.8 2.4 33%
Abbott
Laboratories 19.4 3.8 1.0 25%
Roche 36.2 4.5 2.4 19%
Pfizer is bearing the brunt of these expiries with Lipitor, the cholesterol-lowering agent which generated $11bn last year. Generics will enter the US market later this year, ultimately robbing Pfizer of the world's biggest drug maker title in 2012, with Novartis the heir-apparent.
Although Eli Lilly is facing a smaller patent cliff in dollar terms, the US pharma giant is feeling similar pain. Like Pfizer, two-thirds of the company's drug sales are likely to meet generic competitors in the next three years, presenting a huge challenge which will be tough to overcome.
For more information and in-depth analysis of this data, please see:
Patent storm gathering strength: http://bit.ly/f3JKPS
Pfizer patent cliff dwarfs peers as loss of Lipitor looms: http://bit.ly/fWjvUA
About EvaluatePharma:
The research company EvaluatePharma Ltd was the first to supply reliable consensus forecasts of global drug sales and now provides standardised worldwide financial and forecast models with consensus product sales forecasts to 2016, data on R&D pipelines, licensing deals, patent risk and M&A activity. Launched in 2007, EvaluatePharma(R)Alpha offers a Net Present Value (NPV) valuation service quantifying market events and the impact on product, portfolio and company valuation including the daily online news service EP Vantage(R).
EvaluatePharma(R), EvaluatePharma(R)Alpha, and EP Vantage(R) are services of EvaluatePharma Ltd, headquartered inLondon, England. In North America, EvaluatePharma Ltd is represented by EvaluatePharma USA, Inc.
http://www.evaluatepharma.com
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