European Debt Crisis Facts and Truth

By the National Inflation Association

The mainstream media as of late has been focusing its total attention on the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and seemingly has forgotten that we have a much larger debt crisis in the U.S. that hasn't gone away and is only getting worse. Many global economists have been saying in recent weeks that if the European Central Bank (ECB) only went the way of the Federal Reserve, eurozone nations wouldn't be in the desperate situation they are in today. NIA believes that the ECB has already been acting just like the Fed, just not to the same extent.

Mario Draghi just took over as the new President of the ECB and as his first act in office, Draghi lowered the ECB's benchmark interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. The ECB's interest rate of 1.25%, while not quite as low as the Fed Funds Rate of 0% to 0.25%, is still very inflationary. The ECB's primary stated objective has always been maintaining price stability and containing inflation. However, with all of the rioting and civil unrest that took place in Greece in response to major austerity cuts, public officials in countries like Spain have been putting pressure on the ECB to abandon their objective to maintain price stability and instead focus on helping fuel growth.

In May of 2010, eurozone countries along with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to rescue Greece from default by giving them a €110 billion loan. Of the €110 billion loan, eurozone countries agreed to contribute €80 billion of the funds, including Germany providing €29.3 billion and France providing €22 billion. The IMF agreed to contribute the remaining €30 billion.

Unfortunately for Greece, their bond yields have been skyrocketing and they have been finding it difficult to raise money on their own. Greece is now in need of additional rescue funds. In July of 2011, after Greece's two year bond yield rose as high as 40.46%, European leaders negotiated in Brussels a deal to provide Greece with a new bailout of €109 billion in rescue loans. After this deal was announced, Greece's two year bond yield declined to 25.66% in just two days.

In August, Greece's two year bond yield started to surge once again, surpassing July's high of 40.46%. In mid-September, Moody's downgraded the credit ratings for the eight largest Greek banks, sending the two year bond yield to a new high in September of 84.52%. In early October 2011, Greece raised their 2011 budget deficit estimate as a percentage of GDP to 8.5%, well short of the 7.6% target that Greece promised to meet as a condition of the bailout package agreed to in July.

In late-October, European leaders abandoned their proposal from July and announced a new shocking bailout plan for Greece. Not only did they agree to give Greece new rescue funding of €130 billion, but in an additional part of the agreement, banks holding Greek bonds have agreed to accept a 50% haircut on the money they are owed by Greece. Greece Prime Minister George Papandreou, instead of accepting the deal on his own, announced that he was going to hold a referendum so that Greek citizens can vote on the deal.

Papandreou's proposed referendum infuriated leaders of Germany and France, who expressed their frustrations with Papandreou and threatened to pull the plug on the bailout deal. Greek bond investors once again panicked, sending the two year yield all the way up to a new high of 107.26%. Papandreou later announced that he was canceling the referendum, but still faced calls from the opposition to resign. Papandreou survived a confidence vote this weekend but is planning to soon step down to allow the creation of a new national unity government.

NIA believes that the best decision for Greece and its citizens would be to turn down the new bailout deal and declare bankruptcy. Greece would be best off leaving the eurozone and creating their own fiat currency. The bailouts are doing nothing to help the citizens of Greece, they are only helping the German and French banks that recklessly purchased Greek bonds at artificially low interest rates. If Greece declares bankruptcy, the country won't self-destruct. All of their infrastructure will still exist, but their debts will be eliminated and Greek citizens will enjoy a higher standard of living.

The only good news to come out of the European debt crisis so far is that the banks are willing to accept a 50% haircut on their Greek bonds. If the U.S. is going to survive its debt crisis without creating hyperinflation, it will need to convince its creditors to take an even larger haircut on U.S. treasuries. Unfortunately for Americans, the U.S. will never admit that it can't pay back its debts. The U.S. debt crisis is even worse than Greece, but the U.S. has a printing press that it will use to pay back China, Japan, and our other creditors, which will steal the remaining purchasing power of American citizens who don't have their savings in gold and silver.

The uncertainties and fears surrounding Greece are now spreading to Italy, which saw its 10 year bond yield skyrocket in recent days to a new Euro-era high today of 6.66%. Greece's liquidity problems began last year after their 10 year bond yield rose above 6%. Many people believe that Italy is becoming the next Greece and is now at risk of defaulting on its debt.

Even though Italy's debt to GDP ratio is 120%, the second highest out of eurozone countries behind Greece, Italy's budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is among the lowest in the eurozone at only 3.9%. It is insane for Italy's 10 year bond yield to be 6.66% with the U.S. 10 year bond at only 2.04%. The U.S. has no chance of ever balancing its budget and will likely see its deficit explode to new highs in the years ahead. Italy, on the other hand, could realistically balance its budget if it implements reform measures to cut spending.

NIA believes that Italy's 10 year bond yield is near a short-term peak because everybody has become negative on Italy all at once. It will likely decline back below 6% in the near future as Italy implements more austerity cuts. America's strategy to grow its way out of its own debt crisis will only create massive price inflation without any real economic growth. Before long, U.S. bond yields will surge faster than anybody has ever seen in history. In a few months, the media will forget about Italy and focus their attention on the U.S.

Although a 10 year bond yield for Italy above 6% may be a new high for the Euro-era, Italy's 10 year bond yield averaged well above 6% for many decades before the eurozone was created. Italy made a major mistake by joining the eurozone. Before joining the eurozone, Italy was able to survive even when their 10 year yield reached a high of 13.75% in 1995. After joining the eurozone, Italy was able to borrow money at interest rates that were manipulated to artificially low levels by the ECB. If Italy's bond yields were still being set by the free market this past decade, they would have no where near the level of debt they do today.

Many investors selling Italian bonds are now buying German bonds, because Germany has a low debt to GDP ratio and one of the world's largest manufacturing bases. German 10 year bond yields are now 1.78%, a record 488 basis points below Italy. This huge spread will not last and NIA believes investors are making a mistake by buying German debt over Italian debt. There is no chance of Italy being allowed to default on its debt. If Italy ever gets to the very edge of insolvency, Germany and France will allow the ECB to monetize Italy's debt. If Italy went bankrupt, many of the largest banks in Germany and France would fail. The ECB will not allow this to happen.

As bad as things are in Europe today, with the media making it seem like Euro Armageddon is fast approaching, you would expect the Euro to currently be collapsing on a daily basis. The Euro, which ended last year at $1.34, has risen so far in 2011 to $1.38. This shows that even with all of the inflation being created by the ECB, it is nothing compared to the inflation being created by the Fed. The U.S. is lucky for the European debt crisis because it is taking attention away from our problems and allowing the Fed to secretly prepare QE3 while our bond yields are still near record lows.

If you would like your friends and family members to be among the first to see NIA's 'Occupy Wall Street the Documentary' coming soon, please tell them to become a member of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us

Important Debt Ceiling Update

By the NIA

President Obama just announced late this evening that a deal has been reached to cut government spending and raise the debt ceiling in order to avoid a debt default. If the deal is approved on Monday, it will raise the debt ceiling by between $2.1 and $2.4 trillion in three installments: $400 billion immediately, $500 billion this fall subject to a disapproval vote by Congress, and $1.2 to $1.5 trillion more after a special committee agrees on a matching amount of spending cuts that will be in addition to $900 billion in spending cuts proposed in the bill. With no tax increases included in this plan, all of this additional debt will eventually be monetized and paid for through monetary inflation.

Although the deal is supposed to cut as much as $2.4 trillion in spending over the next decade, Obama said that none of the spending cuts will occur anytime soon so that not to derail the phony economic recovery. That's right, none of the cuts will come until early 2013 and by then we will need to once again raise the debt ceiling to north of $20 trillion. If our elected representatives were serious about cutting spending, they would have the bulk of the spending cuts now and not in the future when many of them will be out of office.

This deal is a complete and total sham, and will do nothing to prevent hyperinflation. In no way will these spending cuts be mandated and nothing will force future Congresses to abide by them. Even with these cuts, government spending is going to increase every single year for the next decade. As price inflation spirals out of control in the years ahead causing the purchasing power of the dollar to plummet, all government employees will demand higher salaries and it will cost more to run all parts of the government. Future Congresses will raise spending and make the spending cuts proposed in this deal meaningless.

NIA believes that all of the events that took place in Washington this weekend were scripted in advance. It is likely that both parties knew from the beginning what deal they would ultimately agree to, but came out with these other proposed bills in order to satisfy tea party supporters and make them think that their efforts are making a difference. The reality is, although the tea party movement helped Republicans take over the House of Representatives so that Democrats didn't have free rein in Washington, most of the new Republicans elected to Congress haven't followed through with their promises and have failed to make any kind of a positive difference.

Everybody in Washington assumes that interest rates will remain at artificially low levels for the rest of this decade. The interest rate that the U.S. paid on its total marketable debt in the month of June was only 2.38%. Exactly one decade earlier, in June of 2001, we paid 6.162% interest on our total marketable debt or 159% higher than current average interest rates. On August 15th we owe our next interest payment of approximately $30 billion. Imagine if that payment rises 159% higher to $77.7 billion or $932.4 billion annualized. Later this decade, interest rates will not only rise back to normal levels like we had in 2001, but will likely rise to artificially high levels to balance out the damage being created today from artificially low interest rates.

If this bill is approved by Congress and the President on Monday, it will avoid a short-term honest debt default but just about guarantee a default by inflation later this decade. There is about a 1 in 1,000 chance that future Congresses will stick with the spending cuts in this bill, but even if they do, rising interest payments will not only wipe out the $2.4 trillion in spending cuts, but they will add trillions more to future deficits and the national debt. A new Gallup Poll shows that 53% of Americans oppose raising the debt ceiling compared to only 37% who favor an increase. We pray that millions of Americans march to Washington tomorrow in protest of this bill and that millions more call, email, and fax their elected representatives in the morning demanding that they vote no.

It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us

Jim Rogers: Creditors of the US have to worry

Geithner should resign as treasury secretary

By the National Inflation Association

The biggest headline in the news so far this week has been S&P's decision to downgrade their U.S. credit outlook to negative. After S&P made their announcement, almost everybody in the mainstream media proclaimed it to be a "wake up call" for the U.S. government, saying that if they don't make a real effort to cut the budget deficit, a fiscal disaster awaits. Despite lowering the U.S. credit outlook to negative, S&P left the U.S. credit rating at AAA.

 

The real story in the media this week should be, how is it possible that the U.S. credit rating remains AAA? After all, AAA is the highest rating possible. Shouldn't a AAA credit rating be reserved for countries with budget surpluses, low levels of debt, and low levels of price inflation? Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was quick to say after S&P's announcement that there is "no risk" of the U.S. losing its AAA rating. NIA respectfully asks Mr. Geithner to resign from office for making those comments. How could there be "no risk" of the world's largest debtor nation losing its AAA rating?

 

As NIA first exposed in its critically acclaimed documentary 'Meltup', S&P, along with Moody's, rated mortgage-backed securities AAA during the mortgage crisis that didn't just decline in value, but went to zero. In our opinion, the credit ratings agencies have absolutely no credibility left and will be out of business in a few years. S&P and Moody's still rate U.S. debt AAA because they fear the negative backlash that would come immediately if they lowered its rating, which would undoubtedly include calls from members of Congress to take away their licenses to be ratings agencies in this country.

 

NIA believes the U.S. credit rating should be junk. Including unfunded liabilities and the backing of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, the U.S. currently has a real national debt that is five times higher than our GDP. There is no chance of the U.S. ever paying back its debts without printing the money and creating hyperinflation. There is no chance of the U.S. ever balancing its budget, without eliminating the so-called untouchable entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

Our nation has reached a point where it is paying out 90% of the money it raises each month from the sales of U.S. treasuries, just to pay back the holders of maturing U.S. treasuries their principle and interest earned. The U.S. needs to continuously sell larger amounts of new debt, just to stay afloat, so there is no conceivable way that any unbiased organization can possibly give the U.S. a credit rating of AAA. The only reason we haven't defaulted on our debts is the Federal Reserve's ability to create monetary inflation and the world's willingness to hoard U.S. dollars due to its status as the world's reserve currency.

 

Despite the euro-zone debt crisis with nations like Greece defaulting on their debt, over the past ten years, the U.S. dollar has fallen from being 70.7% of foreign exchange reserves down to 61.4%, while the Euro has risen from being 19.8% of foreign exchange reserves up to 26.3%. The other currency category, which includes currencies like the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar, has risen during the past decade from 1.2% to 4.4%. The world is clearly diversifying out of the U.S. dollar.

 

Not only is the demand for dollars declining as a percentage of foreign exchange reserves, but there are now calls for our largest creditor nation China to reduce their total foreign exchange reserve holdings. China's foreign exchange reserves have increased by $200 billion this year to over $3 trillion and are mostly invested in U.S. dollars. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said this week that, "Foreign exchange reserves have exceeded our country's rational demand, and too much accumulation has caused excessive liquidity in our markets, adding to the pressure of the central bank's sterilization." In other words, China is likely to begin selling their U.S. dollar reserves and accumulating real assets like gold and silver with this money. The biggest ever rally in precious metals is just around the corner, which means the U.S. dollar's purchasing power is about to plummet.

 

NIA constantly receives emails asking us if Paul Ryan's proposed budget were to be implemented instead of Obama's, would the U.S. be able to prevent hyperinflation. The truth is, both Obama's budget and Ryan's budget would leave us with just about the same national debt five years from now. The constant battles between the Democrats supporting Obama's budget and the Republicans supporting Ryan's budget are simply being used to distract Americans from the real issue, the Federal Reserve's monetization of our debt and the record $1.4 trillion in excess reserves that are currently parked at the Fed.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has just reached a record $2.65 trillion. However, excess reserves parked at the Fed are now rising even faster than the Fed's balance sheet. NIA believes that come later this year, the Federal Reserve is likely going to stop paying interest on excess reserves banks have parked at the Fed, in an effort to push this money into the economy. This high-powered money will multiply by as much as ten times as it circulates throughout the U.S. economy, increasing our money supply by $14 trillion. A rapid increase of our money supply by $14 trillion could potentially cause a run on the dollar, with the world rushing to dump their U.S. dollar reserves for just about any real asset they can get for them.

 

Inflation is beginning to spiral out of control even by the U.S. government's artificially low calculations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics just reported that the consumer price index (CPI) rose in March by 2.68% over a year ago, compared to the February increase of 2.11% and the November increase of 1.1%. Year-over-year CPI increases have risen 144% since November as a direct result of the Fed's destructive policies, yet the Fed continues to say that inflation is not a problem. Even though inflation is now way above the Fed's informal inflation target of 1.5% to 2%, the Fed continues to ignore the CPI and only looks at core-CPI, which excludes food and energy and is mainly based off of rents. All gains in U.S. retail sales are now solely due to inflation and all U.S. economic growth is phony. Any temporary decline in the unemployment rate is only a result of the distortions caused by the Fed's printing of money.

 

Gold has just surpassed $1,500 per ounce and silver has now broken $45 per ounce. These latest movements in gold and silver prices indicate that there is a major risk of hyperinflation breaking out as soon as the second half of 2011. Average U.S. gas prices are now $3.84 per gallon and are rapidly approaching the all time high of $4.12 per gallon from June of 2008. Unlike 2008, there are no leveraged up hedge funds buying oil futures contracts today. Oil prices are rising as a direct result of the Federal Reserve's zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing. Unless the Federal Reserve acts now to dramatically raise interest rates, $5 per gallon gas is possible by the end of 2011.

When gas prices reach $5 per gallon, there won't be a drop off in demand. It will only encourage the Federal Reserve to print more money so that Americans can afford $5 per gallon gas, which could push gas prices to $6 or $7 per gallon in 2012. Saudi Arabia is reducing oil production because they have to, their oil reserves have been overstated by 40% and they are past peak oil production. As bad as rising gas prices are for all Americans, they will be hurt by rising food prices even more. Inventories of gas are not as tight as food inventories, which are now at record lows for such agricultural commodities as corn. NIA has been warning about low agriculture inventories since its first documentary 'Hyperinflation Nation' and accurately predicted this past year's record rise in agricultural commodity prices in its October 30th, 2009, article "U.S. Inflation to Appear Next in Food and Agriculture".

 

NIA predicts the next major inflation crisis will be in college tuition prices. We are about to experience a record rise in student loan defaults as a result of rapidly rising food and gas prices. College tuitions are the one area of the U.S. economy, besides healthcare, that did not experience any decline during the financial crisis of 2008. Despite rapidly rising college tuition prices, the value of a college degree is declining at an even faster rate. NIA believes that by the year 2020, we will conservatively see 20% of American colleges and universities close its doors with enrollments in remaining colleges and universities declining by between 15% and 30%. NIA will expose the facts and truth about the upcoming American college education crisis in its upcoming documentary, 'College Conspiracy'. We are almost done producing 'College Conspiracy' and will be releasing more information about the hour long movie in the days and weeks to come.

 

It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us

Gerald Celente: There is no such a thing as safe technology

On the current nuclear crisis and more.

Tsunami of inflation to hit US with Japan crisis

By the NIA

The earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster that hit Japan this past week and the destruction that it caused is nothing compared to the tsunami of inflation that will soon hit the U.S. as a result of this crisis. A tsunami of inflation in the U.S. will mean a complete collapse of our monetary system, which could lead to millions of deaths due to a lack of food and heat. 44 million Americans are now dependent on food stamps, but when the U.S. dollar becomes worthless as a result of hyperinflation, the government will no longer have the power to support these Americans and many of them will simply starve to death.

 

Japan's citizens were smart enough to save up $885.9 billion in U.S. treasuries to spend in a situation like it finds itself in today. The U.S. has no such savings and is the world's largest debtor nation. Our ability to survive depends on our ability to print money that has purchasing power. The only reason the U.S. dollar still has purchasing power is the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency.

 

All Japan has to do is sell their U.S. treasuries and they will have the financial resources necessary to rebuild the parts of their country that were destroyed by this past week's disaster. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Tuesday that he doesn't think Japan will unload their $885.9 billion in U.S. treasuries. It remains to be seen if Japan will do the right thing and sell their U.S. treasuries or if they will make the mistake of continuing to artificially prop up the U.S. economy.

 

The Central Bank of Japan (BOJ) in recent days has already been repeating many of the same mistakes the Federal Reserve made in the U.S. After this past week's disaster, the BOJ printed hundreds of billions of dollars worth of yen in an attempt to prop up their financial markets. Japan's central bank should be raising interest rates, which would encourage its citizens to increase their savings so that they have more resources to rebuild their country and invest into the production of clean energy. By printing trillions of yen out of thin air, the BOJ will cause prices to rise for the very building materials the Japanese need to purchase in order to rebuild.

 

Although the yen has been rising in recent days, it would be strengthening a lot more if it wasn't for the BOJ's actions. In fact, NIA believes that while the yen may continue to rise in the short-term, the yen is now likely to lose a substantial amount of its purchasing power over the long-term. Instead of allowing the yen to strengthen so that it is cheaper for the Japanese in import copper, iron, steel, oil, natural gas, and other commodities needed to rebuild, the BOJ's actions are actually hurting the Japanese and having the effect of propping up the U.S. economy in the short-term.

 

The mainstream media frequently talks about Japan's national debt and how it is 225% of their GDP. However, Japan owes most of their national debt to themselves. We have a much worse national debt crisis here in the U.S., where we owe half of our debt to foreigners. Not only that, but once you include America's unfunded liabilities for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, along with its debts for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (which are now government backed entities), total U.S. debt obligations now exceed $76 trillion.

 

The Japanese economy reached peak consumer spending in 1990 and entered their "Lost Decade" of deflation with a balanced budget, high savings rate of 15%, low unemployment rate of 2%, and a net debt to GDP ratio of less than 20%. The average American peaks in spending at age 46 and the last babyboomer just turned 46 in 2010. This means the U.S. economy just passed peak consumer spending, similar to Japan in 1990. Instead of entering this decade from a position of strength, the U.S. has entered it with a real budget deficit of $4.3 trillion, a savings rate of only 4%, a real unemployment rate of 22%, and total debt obligations that are 5 times higher than GDP. We won't be so lucky to escape this decade with deflation, but will instead be faced with hyperinflation as the world loses confidence in the U.S. dollar and rushes to dump their dollar-denominated assets.

 

When Japan comes to their senses and realizes just how dire the fiscal situation is in the U.S., they will realize that they are much better off investing into their own economy and abandoning the U.S. economy. Just the fact that Geithner is now saying that he doesn't expect Japan to dump their U.S. treasuries, illustrates just how nervous the U.S. government is about the U.S. dollar and how devastating it would be for all Americans if the Japanese did dump their treasuries. No amount of tax increases and spending decreases will ever allow the U.S. to balance its budget. All the U.S. government can do is talk up a strong U.S. dollar, because they have absolutely no real way to keep it propped up.

 

All NIA members know that Geithner is perhaps the biggest liar in the U.S. government today. Geithner has long said that the U.S. will not monetize its debt, yet the Federal Reserve is now the buyer of 70% of U.S. treasuries being sold. Foreign central bank purchases of U.S. treasuries have fallen from 50% down to 30%. The days of the U.S. exporting its inflation to the rest of the world are now over.

 

The U.S. just reported a record budget deficit last month of $222.5 billion, a bigger deficit than the entire year of 2007. Up until today, the U.S. has been paying off its debts plus interest by selling larger amounts of U.S. treasuries to new buyers. This is effectively a ponzi scheme, although the U.S. government will never admit it. Even if Japan doesn't sell the U.S. treasuries they already own, that won't be enough for the U.S. to keep this ponzi scheme going. The U.S. needs Japan to keep buying U.S. treasuries, but not only that, they need Japan to buy larger amounts of U.S. treasuries than ever before. The odds of Japan increasing their U.S. treasury purchases during this time of crisis are close to zero, they simply don't have the financial means to do so.

 

If Japan doesn't step up its U.S. treasury purchases, who will pick up the slack, China? Geithner infuriated China last year by calling them currency manipulators and since then, China has been rapidly expanding the yuan's use in cross border transactions and is now setting up the yuan to be the world's next reserve currency. NIA believes China is likely to stop buying U.S. treasuries, and will instead loan money to Japan to help in their rebuilding efforts.

 

It is unbelievable just how many of the economists featured by the mainstream media are calling the disaster in Japan a "stimulus" for not only the Japanese economy, but also the U.S. economy. When a country is forced to rebuild an asset that it already had, it is not stimulating the economy, but is spending resources that could have went towards increasing the production of goods and services. When Japan is eventually finished rebuilding the parts of the country that were devastated this past week, the country isn't going to be better off than they were before the crisis. They will likely be even more deeply in debt, with less foreign currency reserves, and a much larger money supply. The Nikkei will likely be a lot higher than it is today due to inflation, but the yen will be worth a lot less and the Japanese will be far less wealthy as a result.

Latest from the National Inflation Association

By the NIA

U.S. Dollar Collapse Could Occur at Any Time

 

China this morning reported 4.9% price inflation for the month of February, exceeding analyst expectations of 4.8%. With China now mimicking the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and taking steps to artificially manipulate their consumer price index (CPI) numbers as low as possible, it is likely that real price inflation in China is now closer to 10%. China was at least smart enough to raise interest rates last month by 25 basis points to 6.06%, while the Federal Reserve continues to leave interest rates near zero with there being absolutely no talk of the Federal Reserve ever raising interest rates again. China will be successful at containing inflation, as U.S. inflation spirals out of control and becomes the greatest economic crisis in American history.

 

China this week reported a $7.3 billion trade deficit for the month of February, its largest trade deficit in seven years, which surprised many global economists. NIA believes China's trade deficit is temporary and that China will quickly return to having a trade surplus. The Federal Reserve's QE2 along with China's destructive monetary policies, which artificially devalue the yuan, have led to a massive rise in China's raw material costs this year. NIA believes that in the upcoming months, Chinese manufacturers will raise the prices of their products that get exported to the U.S., to counteract rising commodity prices. With most products used by Americans today having been manufactured in China, this will mean Americans will soon see massive price inflation in just about all consumer goods they use. NIA projects that by the end of 2011, we will begin to see the U.S. CPI increase by 4.9% or higher on a year-over-year basis, with real U.S. price inflation rising north of 10%.

 

The mainstream media is proclaiming that China's trade deficit will silence calls for the Chinese to allow their currency to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. The fact is, China's government has for long been making the major mistake of printing too many yuan in order to artificially prop up the U.S. dollar. Their fear was, if the U.S. dollar was allowed to decline too rapidly, prices of Chinese goods would rise in terms of U.S. dollars and Americans would no longer afford to import them.

 

The truth is, if China allowed the yuan to strengthen, the Chinese would have enjoyed a much higher standard of living. Sure, prices would rise in dollars and Americans would import less, but the Chinese would have the ability to consume more of their own products. Now, as a result of China expanding its own money supply in order to keep the yuan pegged to the U.S. dollar, Americans will be forced to pay a much higher price for Chinese goods anyway. The same higher prices Americans were going to pay as a result of exchange rate appreciation, Americans will now pay as a result of inflation. For the Chinese, the exchange rate appreciation route would have been a much better route to take than the inflation route, because now the Chinese will also be forced to pay higher prices. In the very short-term, China might actually suffer more than the U.S. because they lack the social safety nets that have been implemented here in America.

 

The U.S. government has been successful at temporarily paying off Americans into not rioting in the streets like in Arab nations. It was just announced a few days ago that the number of Americans on food stamps in the month of December of 2010 was a record 44,082,324, up 13.1% from one year earlier and 1.1% from one month earlier. That is more than 14% of the total U.S. population! Combined with President Obama extending unemployment benefits up to 99 weeks, American citizens are too busy and distracted playing with their iPad 2s and gossiping on Twitter about Charlie Sheen, to have any time to protest in Washington, DC.

 

NIA believes the U.S. government's entitlement spending is currently having the unintended consequence of making Americans dependent on government. It is like when you take wild animals into captivity and you feed them, teach them to do tricks and take care of them for a period of many years; if you just dump them one day back into the wild, it will be very difficult for them to survive. Americans who have become dependent on unemployment checks and food stamps will likely soon abruptly find out that they must begin to fend for themselves without any help from the government. The result will be many Americans turning into wild animals and becoming so desperate that they will have to rob and burglarize their fellow neighbors who were smart enough to prepare, or else they will risk starving to death.

 

As a result of QE2, the Federal Reserve is now buying 70% of U.S. treasuries, up from previously only buying 10% of treasury bonds. Foreign central banks are now buying just 30% of U.S. treasuries, compared to previously buying 50% of treasury bonds. The U.S. budget deficit in the month of February reached a record $222.5 billion or $2.67 trillion on an annualized basis. With the Federal Reserve now monetizing our debt in full swing, a complete and total loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar could be imminent.

 

Just like how nobody in the mainstream media was calling for the collapse of Egypt's government a few months ago, almost nobody in the media believes a collapse of the U.S. dollar could possibly take place anytime soon. NIA members are educated enough to see that the writing is on the wall. The Federal Reserve can deny all it wants that the U.S. is experiencing inflation, but with the cost to print a single U.S. dollar paper note rising by 50% since 2008, massive inflation is here right under Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's nose. Every day that goes by, China is quietly implementing more and more steps that expand the yuan's use in cross border trade, in order to position the yuan as the world's next reserve currency.

 

So few Americans are presently preparing for hyperinflation that if hyperinflation broke out today, approximately 90% of Americans won't have the means to put food on the table or put fuel in their automobiles. During the upcoming hyperinflationary crisis, food stamps will no longer have any value at all and all U.S. entitlement programs will come to a complete halt. Americans will take to the streets like the world has never seen before.

 

The biggest question NIA has today is, will the U.S. government resort to firing at its own citizens, if major riots take place in Washington, DC. On Thursday, police in Saudi Arabia shot and wounded three protesters. The price of oil rose by a few dollars per barrel as soon as this news hit the wire, which shows just how nervous the world's financial markets have become in recent weeks. The fact that the Dow Jones has declined significantly in recent days, in our opinion means that the odds of QE3 being launched as soon as QE2 is over, are now much higher than they were several weeks ago.

 

The other big question NIA has today is, if in the unlikely event there is no QE3, who will fill in for the artificial buying demand currently coming from the Federal Reserve. After all, with no QE3, the Federal Reserve will go from buying 70% of treasury bonds to being a seller of U.S. treasuries. NIA is 100% sure that foreign central banks aren't itching to jump back in to fill the hole. While in the past, the private sector may have picked up the slack, we believe individual investors will now be more reluctant to jump into government bonds, especially with bond king Bill Gross reducing the government bond holdings in his Pimco Total Return Fund down to zero. The bottom line is, no QE3 means interest rates will fly sky high and destroy the phony so-called "economic recovery".

 

From April to August of 2010, the last time the Federal Reserve allowed its balance sheet to shrink, the Dow Jones fell by over 1,000 points. If Bernanke doesn't soon begin to leak out the strong likelihood of QE3, we could see the stock market decline by 1,000 points or more, which will force Bernanke into launching QE3. If we see a major sell off in stocks, NIA doesn't necessarily think that precious metals prices will follow. In fact, we could see gold and silver rise along with the Dow Jones falling. NIA projects the Dow Jones to gold ratio to decline to 6.5 in 2011. This means even if the Dow Jones fell to below 11,000, we still believe gold is likely to rise to around $1,600 to $1,700 per ounce this year, with silver soaring to around $42 to $44 per ounce. NIA believes the worst decision any American can make is to sell their gold and silver and go long U.S. dollars, hoping to buy their precious metals back at a lower price in the future.

 

US government lying about inflation and job markets

Inflation update

Egypt:Preview of America in 2015

From the NIA

The rioting and looting currently taking place in Egypt is primarily a result of massive food inflation and shows what all major cities in the United States will likely look like come year 2015 due to the Federal Reserve's zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing to infinity. On December 16th, 2009, NIA named Time Magazine's 2009 'Person of the Year' Ben Bernanke our 'Villain of the Year', saying he created "unprecedented amounts of inflation in unprecedented ways" and "When it costs $20 for a gallon of milk in a few years, Americans will have nobody to thank more than Bernanke."

 

What started out a few weeks ago as protests in Algeria with citizens chanting "Bring Us Sugar!" and five citizens being killed, quickly spread to civil unrest in Tunisia which saw 14 more civilian deaths, and has now spread to riots in Egypt where 300 Egyptian citizens have been killed. Food inflation in Egypt has reached 20% and citizens in the nation already spend about 40% of their monthly expenditures on food. Americans for decades have been blessed with cheap food, spending only 13% of their expenditures on food, but this is about to change.

 

NIA was the first to predict the recent explosion in agricultural commodity prices in our October 30th, 2009, article entitled, "U.S. Inflation to Appear Next in Food and Agriculture", which said we have a "perfect storm for an explosion in agriculture prices". A couple of months later in 'NIA's Top 10 Predictions for 2010' we predicted "Major Food Shortages" and said, "Inventories of agricultural products are the lowest they have been in decades yet the prices of many agricultural commodities are down 70% to 80% from their all time highs adjusted for real inflation". Over the past year, agricultural commodities as a whole have outperformed almost every other type of asset, with silver being one of only a few other assets keeping pace with agriculture. (On December 11th, 2009, NIA declared silver the best investment for the next decade at $17.40 per ounce and it has so far risen 64% to its current price of $28.39 per ounce).

 

The world is at the beginning stages of an all out inflationary panic. Wheat, which NIA previously called on 'NIAnswers' its favorite investment besides gold and silver, is now up to a new 30-month high of $8.63 per bushel and has doubled in price since June of last year. Algeria bought 800,000 tonnes of wheat this past week, bringing their total purchases for the month of January up to 1.8 million tonnes, which was quadruple expectations. Saudi Arabia is also beginning to stockpile their inventories of wheat. Rice futures have gained 8% during the past few days with Bangladesh and Indonesia placing extraordinary large orders. Indonesia's latest rice order was quadruple its normal allotment and Bangladesh plans to double rice purchases this year. Meanwhile, the U.S., which is the world's third largest exporter of rice, is expected to cut production by 25% in 2011.

 

NIA considers rice to be one of the world's most undervalued agricultural commodities at its current price of $15.96 per 100 pounds and forecasts a move back to its 2008 high of $24 per 100 pounds as soon as the end of 2011. NIA believes cotton, at its current price of $1.80 per pound, may have gotten a bit ahead of itself in the short-term. In NIA's first ever article about agriculture on February 17th, 2009, we said that cotton's "upside potential is astronomical" at its then price of $0.44 per pound. NIA pointed to increasing sales to textile companies in China and the fact that cotton was down 70% from its all time high as reasons to be very bullish on cotton at $0.44 per pound. Early NIA members could have made 309% on cotton, but today we see much bigger potential in rice. The recent spike in cotton reminds us of the 2008 spike in oil. Although we believe cotton will ultimately rise above $3 per pound later this decade, we could possibly see a dip to below $1.40 per pound first.

 

Many people in the mainstream media have been criticizing NIA's recent food inflation report, claiming that agricultural commodity prices have very little to do with prices of food in the supermarket. CNBC's Steve Liesman, in particular, claims that "rising commodity prices won't cause inflation". Liesman has it backwards. NIA has never claimed that rising commodity prices cause inflation. Soaring budget deficits that the U.S. government can't possibly pay for through taxation causes inflation when the Fed is forced to monetize the debt by printing money.

 

Rising commodity prices are only a symptom of inflation. The reason NIA was so bullish on agricultural commodities going back two years ago when we produced our first documentary 'Hyperinflation Nation', is because while gold is the best gauge of inflation and is often the best tool for predicting future money printing, agriculture is where the majority of the monetary inflation ends up going after the Fed's newly printed money trickles down to the middle-class and poor. With gold prices already surging two years ago when we produced 'Hyperinflation Nation', NIA said in the documentary "food prices have the potential to surge most during hyperinflation".

 

One thing NIA is almost 100% sure of is that come year 2015, middle-class Americans will be spending at least 30% to 40% of their income on food, similar to Egyptians today. As NIA warned in its latest documentary 'End of Liberty', if you don't have enough money to accumulate physical gold and silver, it is important to begin establishing your own food storage, and store enough food to feed you and your family for at least six months during hyperinflation. Many store shelves in Egypt are now empty after recent panic buying, with shortages of nearly all major staple items throughout the country.

 

The U.S. Treasury is getting ready to sell $72 billion in new long-term bonds next week, as the U.S. rapidly approaches its $14.29 trillion debt limit. The debt limit is now expected to be reached by April 5th and Treasury Secretary Geithner warned the U.S. will see "catastrophic damage" if it isn't raised. With the Federal Reserve now surpassing China and Japan as the largest holder of U.S. treasuries, the real "catastrophic damage" ahead will be hyperinflation as a result of the U.S. government doing absolutely nothing to dramatically reduce spending. It is an absolute joke that Obama during his State of the Union address announced $400 billion in spending cuts over the next 10 years, but then the very next day, the Congressional Budget Office increased its 2011 budget deficit projection by $400 billion to $1.48 trillion.

 

Not raising the debt limit would be a good thing, as it would force Washington to live within its means. Sure, the stock market would collapse and the U.S. economy would enter into its next Great Depression, but at least it would save the U.S. dollar from losing all of its purchasing power. In fact, the standard of living for middle class Americans might actually improve if the government allowed the free market to put our economy into a depression, because goods and services would get cheaper.

 

The U.S. economy has become a drug addict that is dependent on cheap and easy money from the Federal Reserve. While Wall Street bankers took home a record $135 billion in total compensation in 2010, up 5.7% from $128 billion in 2009, this money was stolen from middle-class and poor Americans through inflation. The more monetary inflation (heroin) the Federal Reserve creates in order to satisfy the (in the words of Gerald Celente) "money junkies" on Wall Street, the more middle-class and poor Americans become dependent on unemployment checks and food stamps just to survive. Millions of American students are graduating college with hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt but no jobs. Luckily for them (but not holders of U.S. dollars), NIA is hearing reports from both unemployed and underemployed college graduates with student loans that the government is reducing their required monthly payments by sometimes 90% or more based on their current incomes.

 

China and Japan recently saw their credit ratings downgraded, while the U.S. credit rating remains at "AAA". NIA believes it would make far more sense for the world's largest debtor nation to be downgraded instead of the world's two largest creditor nations. The Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing has yet to even reach the halfway point and the Fed already holds about $1.11 trillion in U.S. treasuries. By the time QE2 is over at the end of June, the Fed will own $1.6 trillion in U.S. treasuries, about what China and Japan own combined. Shockingly, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig is already dropping hints about QE3. According to Hoenig, the Fed may consider extending treasury purchases beyond June 30th, 2010, (the scheduled completion date for QE2) if U.S. economic data looks disappointing.

 

With the Fed taking over as the largest holder of U.S. treasuries, China is beginning to rapidly move away from the U.S. dollar and into gold. In just the first 10 months of 2010, China imported 209 metric tons of gold compared to 45 metric tons in all of 2009, a stunning five-fold increase. While the western world is downplaying the threat of inflation as much as possible, Asian countries understand that hyperinflation is the most devastating thing that can possibly happen to any economy. The demand for gold in Asia right now is the most intense it has ever been, as they look to tackle rising inflation before it becomes hyperinflation.

 

The Chinese are so smart that families are now giving each other gold bullion as gifts instead of traditional red envelopes filled with cash. China is now on track to soon surpass India as the world's largest consumer of gold. The China Securities Regulatory Commission recently gave Beijing-based Lion Fund Management Co. approval to create a fund that will invest into foreign gold ETFs.

 

U.S. stock mutual funds saw $6.7 billion in net inflows during the past two weeks, the most in any two week period since May of 2009. The rioting, looting, and civil unrest in Egypt is now making the U.S. look like the safe haven of the world, even though it should be considered the riskiest place to invest. From the Dow's low in August until now, about $38 billion was actually removed from U.S. stock mutual funds, despite the stock market rising 20%. The Dow Jones has been rising from September until now solely due to the Federal Reserve printing around $350 billion out of thin air. When central banks print money, stock markets often act as a relief valve due to there being too much inflation going into the hands of financial institutions.

 

The U.S. M2 money supply surged by $46.6 billion during the week ending January 17th to a record $8.8623 trillion, following a rise during the previous week of $7.6 billion. The rise in the M2 money supply over the past two weeks of $54.2 billion equals an annualized increase of 16%. The M2 multiplier now stands at 4.218 compared to a long-term average of 10. When QE2 is complete, the Fed's monetary base will likely stand at $2.59 trillion. A return to the long-term average M2 multiplier of 10 means we are due to see a 192% increase in the M2 money supply and that is not even including a possible QE3 and QE4.

 

The U.S. economic ponzi scheme could unravel very quickly in the years ahead, with the velocity of money increasing much faster than anybody expects. As more Americans learn about NIA and become educated to the truth about the U.S. economy and inflation, a complete loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar could occur very suddenly. It is important for all Americans to prepare as if hyperinflation will be here tomorrow. At least in Egypt, their currency still has purchasing power and their citizens are trying to implement a regime change before it is too late. By 2015 in America, it will already be too late and the civil unrest here has the potential to be many times worse.

US moving into a third world status

Anybody noticed that all these shooters were high on psychotropic drugs??!!

The latest financial and economic news from the NIA

Home closures, inflationary depression accelerating - no recovery in sight

From the National Inflation Association

G Edward Griffin: A new currency is coming to replace the dollar

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Freedom Force International.org

Inflation and depression update from the NIA

China importing US food inflation

Excerpt:

"The inflation that Chinese citizens are currently suffering from is inflation that China is needlessly importing from the U.S. The solution to China's inflationary crisis is simple, they should allow the yuan to appreciate in value. China's currency is currently artificially low because they are keeping it pegged to the U.S. dollar. As the Federal Reserve prints money, China's central bank also prints enough money to keep the yuan's exchange rate with the U.S. dollar stable. This is done entirely to help Chinese export companies, but it is causing Chinese citizens to suffer."

"The same food inflation crisis that China is currently experiencing will likely hit the U.S. in early 2011, only much worse. NIA believes it is only a matter of time before Congress places the blame for rapidly rising U.S. food prices on American "speculators" who are buying agricultural commodity ETFs and "hoarders" who have food storage at home. While China can easily solve their food inflation crisis by allowing the yuan to strengthen, the U.S. will have no way of solving its upcoming food inflation crisis. Despite the U.S. being a major producer of agricultural products and being mostly self-sufficient, oil is a very important commodity used in agriculture production and the U.S. needs to import most of its oil. Oil prices hit a new 52-week high last month of about $88 per barrel."

"If China wants to become the world's new superpower, they need to allow Chinese businesses that export to the U.S. to either go bankrupt or find new buyers of their products. Sure, the stock and bond holders will get wiped out, but the infrastructure will still be there. Those who are invested into gold and silver today will have the resources to buy up cheap Chinese assets out of bankruptcy years down the road. Although the first and second tranche investors in China may lose everything, those who buy up these assets out of bankruptcy will be positioned to prosper during what could be a future 25 year boom period for China when their citizens are no longer forced to prop up the U.S. economy."

To read the full article on the National Inflation Association's website , click here.

Latest analysis from the National Inflation Association

Hyperinflation is guaranteed if US stays on its current path

The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform released last week their 'CoChairs' Proposal' on how the U.S. can achieve $100.2 billion in domestic savings and $100.1 billion in defense savings in fiscal year 2015, for total discretionary spending savings of $200.3 billion. Combined with other steps designed to boost tax revenues, the commission's plan, if implemented, is expected to reduce the projected 2015 U.S. budget deficit by $400 billion to $372 billion. NIA believes it is very unlikely that our representatives in Washington will have the political backbone and courage to implement any of the commission's proposed spending cuts. The truth is, the U.S. is on a path towards exploding budget deficits in the years ahead, that could cause an outbreak of hyperinflation by the end of calendar year 2015.

Many people are asking us when exactly we expect our food price projections to be reached. We can pretty much guarantee you that all of our food price projections will be seen this decade. There is a very good chance of our projections being reached by the end of calendar year 2015 and a slight chance that they will be reached as soon as the 2012 elections. NIA's food price projections are very conservative. They are based on the current purchasing power of the U.S. dollar and do not factor in the likelihood of an outbreak of hyperinflation.

NIA believes that if the U.S. stays on its current path, we are guaranteed to see hyperinflation this decade. The only way it will be possible to prevent hyperinflation is if the U.S. government dramatically cuts spending across the board immediately and if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates from near zero percent (where they have been for nearly two years) to a level that is higher than the real rate of price inflation. Considering that the Federal Reserve still claims to fear deflation and just announced massive quantitative easing, we see very little chance of any major interest rate hikes taking place during the next six months.

Although the commission's proposal includes many large spending cuts including freezing federal salaries for three years (saving $15.1 billion), cutting the federal workforce by 10% (saving $13.2 billion), and eliminating 250,000 non-defense service and staff augmentee contractors (saving $18.4 billion); even if their proposal was implemented it would be too little too late. The commission's proposal calls for its cuts to be gradually implemented beginning in early 2012 and it includes absolutely no meaningful cuts to social security. The only proposed major changes to social security are raising the retirement age to 68 in year 2050 and 69 in year 2075. There is absolutely no chance of the U.S. dollar surviving past the year 2020 unless much more drastic spending cuts than the commission has proposed are implemented within the next twelve months.

The commission says that if we fail to implement their proposed spending cuts, we will likely see interest payments on our national debt reach $1 trillion by 2020. The reality is, NIA believes interest payments on our national debt are likely to reach $1 trillion in 2015. It is currently projected that our interest payments in 2015 will be $586 billion. However, this number is based on a projected 4.1% interest rate on our 91-day treasury bills and 5.3% interest rate on our 10-year treasury bills.

The yield on 10-year U.S. treasuries has risen in recent weeks by 41 basis points to 2.94%, up from 2.53% on November 4th. NIA believes it is likely the 10-year yield will rise back above 4% in the first half of 2011. By 2015, we expect the 10-year yield to be substantially higher then 5.3%. During the 1970s, the last time we had an inflationary crisis like the one we are rapidly approaching, yields on the 10-year bond exploded. When each of the agricultural commodities in our food inflation report reached their real all time highs in the 1970s, the average 10-year bond yield at the time of their highs was 7.47%. With the Federal Reserve likely to be forced to raise the Fed Funds Rate to around this same level, based on our projected public debt in 2015 of $14 trillion, our interest payments will likely rise to $1.046 trillion or 29% of projected tax receipts, and this is a very conservative estimate.

The Federal Reserve's monetary base currently stands at $1.9851 trillion and is projected to rise to $2.5851 trillion by mid-2011 due to the Fed's upcoming $600 billion in quantitative easing. The U.S. M2 money supply rose over the past week by $22.4 billion to $8.7862 trillion. This represents a $1.1648 trillion annualized increase, which would equal 13.25% monetary inflation over the next year. The M2 multiplier, or M2 divided by the monetary base, currently stands at 4.426, compared to a long-term average of 10. Based on a projected monetary base of $2.5851 trillion and a long-term average M2 multiplier of 10, the M2 money supply has a chance of rising as much as 194% to $25.851 trillion over the next few years.

In the short-term, if the M2 multiplier remains at 4.426, it is likely the M2 money supply could rise to $11.4416 trillion next year, up 30.22% from its current level. With the UBS Bloomberg CMCI Food Index currently up 30.5% from its low in August, it appears as though the market has already factored the upcoming 30.22% increase in the M2 money supply into agricultural commodity prices. Even if food manufacturing companies and retailers agree to accept 2/3 of these rising costs in the form of lower profit margins, Americans will still see about a 10% rise in retail food prices come early 2011.

The upcoming food inflation crisis and eventual hyperinflation will come as a direct result of our representatives in Washington trying to prevent a much needed recession by propping up Real Estate prices through bailouts, stimulus plans, tax rebates, and other wasteful programs. The only thing that our elected representatives care about is remaining in power. They only see our current problems and not the problems that will arrive next as a result of their actions. Their goal is to make the average American as dependent on them as possible through massive price inflation, so that the average American is forced to rely on entitlement programs just to survive.

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